In an era of shifting alliances and intensifying geopolitical competition, the South Caucasus—an energy-rich crossroads between Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East—holds significant strategic opportunities and challenges for Pakistan.
As global powers like China and the United States (US) vie for influence in what has long been a sphere of Russian dominance, Pakistan’s position, mainly shaped by solidarity with Azerbaijan, now calls for a nuanced reassessment. Pakistan may explore expanding its regional influence in the evolving geopolitical landscape while preserving core alliances.
Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Pakistan has cultivated a close relationship with Azerbaijan through shared views on territorial integrity and regional security issues. Pakistan’s refusal to recognise Armenia, stemming from solidarity with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, underscored a strong alignment with Baku’s regional aspirations. This policy has earned Pakistan Azerbaijan’s support on international platforms, especially on the Kashmir issue, and has facilitated cooperation across defence, economic, and energy domains.
Moreover, Türkiye’s robust presence in the South Caucasus and its strategic alignment with Pakistan further solidify Islamabad’s stance in favour of Azerbaijan.
However, Pakistan’s isolation on the Armenian issue constrains its diplomatic flexibility, limiting engagement with the South Caucasus as a whole. Most countries maintain formal relations with Armenia despite their positions on Nagorno-Karabakh. As Pakistan seeks to broaden its regional and global influence, a pragmatic approach towards Armenia could offer significant economic partnerships and regional integration opportunities without jeopardising existing alliances.
Even Türkiye and Armenia, despite a history of strained relations and closed borders, initiated efforts to reconcile in December 2021. Their special envoys conducted multiple rounds of dialogue, including four by mid-2022. In September 2024, Armenia expressed optimism over the normalisation process with Türkiye and affirmed its commitment at the highest political level to achieving “full normalisation” of relations.
At the same time, Pakistan must consider the potential benefits of engaging Armenia within an economic framework. Armenia’s Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) membership is directly linked to Russia and Central Asia markets, regions of strategic interest to Pakistan’s broader economic goals. Maintaining a cautious yet open approach to Armenia could allow Pakistan to access new trade routes and diversify its economic engagements, building resilience against regional uncertainties and fostering a sense of optimism about Pakistan's strategic options. This economic diversification could lead to growth and stability, instilling a sense of optimism in the public.
The intensifying rivalry between the US and China introduces additional complexity. Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has significantly increased its footprint in the Caucasus, mainly through infrastructure investments in Georgia, creating connectivity that aligns with Pakistan’s strategic interests. China’s neutral stance in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict allows it to maintain favourable relations with all parties, and this approach resonates with Pakistan’s foreign policy ethos of non-alignment in regional disputes.
In contrast, the US, intent on containing China’s peaceful rise, has promoted alternative infrastructure projects and partnerships within the South Caucasus. Georgia’s pro-Western orientation and interest in joining NATO make it a pivotal partner for the US in containing Russian and Chinese interests in Eurasia. Pakistan’s longstanding ties with China, further solidified in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), provide Islamabad with a model for economic diplomacy without overt political alignment. Aligning its South Caucasus policy with China’s non-aligned strategy could enable Pakistan to increase its regional influence while maintaining its core alliances.
Recognition of Armenia could provide Pakistan swift access to the EAEU, an economic union of five post-Soviet states that aims to create a single market similar to the European Union (EU), offering an expanded economic platform. Trade opportunities within the EAEU, especially in Russia and Central Asia, align with Pakistan’s economic diversification goals. During his visit to Islamabad in September 2024, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk discussed the prospects of Pakistan’s inclusion in the EAEU and the Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa (BRICS) economic partnership. Pakistan must approach such options prudently, balancing its engagement with Armenia to avoid alienating Azerbaijan or diminishing the depth of its strategic alliances.
Recognition of Armenia could also position Pakistan as a balancing actor in the South Caucasus, potentially facilitating dialogue between Armenia and Azerbaijan. A neutral stance could enhance Pakistan’s diplomatic profile, showcasing it as an advocate for stability in conflict-prone regions and bolstering its ambitions in global diplomacy.
As the US-China rivalry shapes Eurasia’s future, Pakistan could adopt a rational approach in the Caucasus that mirrors China’s neutral stance. Avoiding direct involvement in regional disputes while expanding its economic presence could enhance Pakistan’s long-term influence without straining its alliances with China or risking entanglement in local conflicts.
Pakistan’s foreign policy in the South Caucasus, particularly its non-recognition of Armenia, has thus far supported its strategic partnerships with Azerbaijan and Türkiye. However, as regional dynamics evolve, a flexible, economically pragmatic approach towards Armenia could benefit Pakistan’s broader geopolitical objectives. It will also assist Pakistan in forging its brotherly relations with Iran and allow it to counter Indian influence in the region.
Balancing strategic alliances with economic pragmatism will be essential for Pakistan as it adapts to the changing landscape of the South Caucasus and asserts its place on the global stage.